Horse race handicapping

Question
Michael,
In your opinion how important is speed in a race.
The last time i had a question on the most important point of handicapping a race. Your answer was condition. How do you interpret condition? Also, today, due to the computer, there are many so called handicappers selling their selections. I've check 2000 races of their selections and the average win payoff is only $4.80. They had only 25% winners which led to a 42% net loss on their selections. Thank God, due to them, I've collected many overlay payoffs on winners. The highest was an 83-1 shot (One Turn- who won at Turf Paradise in Dec.,2001). Also many trifectas, exactas, doubles, etc paying $1300.00.
On the ONE TURN selection, I had his natural odds at 2-1, acording to my comp. program. I base my handicapping on speed as being the formost important with condition. Money won, weight, jockey,trainer are a very small percentage of the selections. The main reason I would like your opinion on speed and how do you define the condition factor. Also, if I may ask you one more question, the pace factor, which I didn't mention with my speed and condition, which I work into the final selection.
My hcp program which I wrote, took me about 17 years to get it to where I want it. Still looking to improve it. Right now it produces 32% winners at an average payoff of $11.30. If you can help me with your input on speed, pace and condition, which I think are the most Important factors, I would appreciate it from the bottom of my heart.
By the way, talking about speed, I came up with the principal that Andy Beyer uses, back in 1961.
Also, I don't agree with the Beyer figures in about 35% of the races. They just don't jive.
I am sorry I got carried away with this but I fell in love with the aspect of handicapping back in Chicago when I was 11 years old.

Thank you for your time Michael.

Frank Skvarek
[email protected]

Answer
HI' FRANK SORRY IT TOOK SO LONG TO ANSWER YOU. BUT THE BIG STEWART IN THE SKY KINDA PULLED MY SHANK AND I WAS RUSHED TO THE HOSPITAL IN AN AMBULANCE DAMN I FINALLY RODE IN AN AMBULANCE. BUT AFTER REHABILITATION I SHOULD BE...OK..MOW LETS GET TO BUSSINES, I DO REMEMBER YOUR PRIOR QUESTION ...AND MY ANSWER WAS CONDITION.HERE HOW I FIGURE THE CONDITION I TAKE THE LAST  THREE RACES TAKE THE SPEED
RATING FOR THE SAME DISTANCE AND DIVIDE BY THREE TO GET THE AVG SPEED RATING ALSO ANOTHER WAY IS TO TAKE THE LAST THREE RACES TO QUALIFY THE HORSES BY SAYING THRY HAD TO FINISH AT LEAST 3I/2 BEATEN LENGHTHS WITHIN A 30  PERIOD AND I HAVE A
SLIDE RULE THAT I USE I BROUGHT IT UP TO DATE AND I USE IT ON MY RACING PROGRAM THE ORIGINAL WAS CALLED RATE O SLIDE BY SARGE COLEMAN IM LOS ANGELES . AS FAR AS THE SPEED GOES I  TAKE  THE AVG,SPEED AND WEIGHT IN THE RACE AND DO EACH HORSE INDV .THEN I GET THE AVERAGE SPEED THATS IN THE RACE BY ADDING THEM TOGETHER DIVIDING BY THE NUMBER OF HORSES THAT ARE IN THE RACE ANY ANYTHING THAT IS BELOW AVERAGE THROW IT OUT.AS FAR AS THE PACE GOES THATS THE TRICKY ONE
ALL I KNOW I GOOD HORSE CAN RUN 3 PANELS AT FULL BORE MORE IS LEARMED BY WATCHING THE HORSES DURING THE RACE AND BETTING THEM NEXT TIME OUT IF THEY FIGURE TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT IT , I LIKE YOU GOT INVOLVED WHEN I WAS II YEARS OLD I SAW BILLY HARTACK WIN HIS FIRST RACE,,DON'T BE WORRIED ABOUT THE PUBLIC HANDICAPPERS AND THE TOUTS THEY PRIMERALY SUCK ANYWAYI WILL BE GETTING  HOLD OF YOU SOON AS SOON ASTHE PARALYSIS WORKS OFF MY LEFT SIDE AND WE WILL DISCUSS SOME MORE OF YOUR OBSERVATIONS. OH AND DON'T WORY ABOUT IMPROVING YOUR PROGRAM . ALL THE GOOD ONES ARE TRYING TO BEAT THEIR OWN SELECTIONS...WELL FRANK I GOTTO GO BECAUSE THE WARDEN SAY;S IVE BEEN UP TO LONG.
                                     GOOD LUCK
                                        MICHAEL