Breeders Cup Classic 2002

Question
Hi - Wow - like your background for this question!  I am learning handicapping and am working hard on the Breeder's Cup but I need some help. Can you give me your opinion of which horses I should be seriously considering for the Classic on the 26th?  Thank you, Pamela Wagner

Answer
Hi, Pamela -

I was wondering whether you're my friend Pamela Wagner or another Pamela Wagner.  If you're the Pam I know, hi.  If not . . . well . . . hi.

I've taken a few days to respond because the Breeders' Cup preliminary past performances (pp's) just hit the newsstands. However, I've spent a little time with them, so here's what I think as of today (Wednesday):

The runner whose pp's really catch my eye is Hawk Wing.  He's raced in top European company all year, is trained by Aidan O'Brien (Ireland's equivalent to Bob Baffert - he wins with almost everything he enters at The Curragh, Leopardstown, Naas, and the other Irish tracks), and is bred to handle the 10-furlong distance with ease.  

Hawk Wing will have to adjust to running on dirt, but as we've seen over the past several years (with Swain, Giant's Causeway, and last year with Sakhee), a European with ability can race competitively even on the unfamiliar dirt surface.  Hawk Wing certainly has ability, and should offer generous odds (perhaps 10-1 or better).  This year's BC Classic doesn't look all that strong to me, so it might be the year for a top European to surprise.

I don't care much for Came Home returning from a long layoff, nor do I like Milwaukee Brew, which won a weakish running of the Santa Anita Handicap.  You're probably aware by now that Momentum is injured and won't be running.  Formal Attire raced well in his most recent starts, but his numbers don't seem all that impressive to me.  Rock of Gibralter's record is super-impressive, but I expect that he'll run in the Mile (and I'll be betting that he'll lose; so-called "European Superhorses" going off at short odds have a miserable record in the Mile).  

I would be very surprised to see War Emblem in the winner's circle.  When I saw him at Del Mar he looked like a tired horse, and his race confirmed my suspicion that we've already seen his best.  Moreover, the Classic should feature a torrid pace that will cook anything running on the lead, which is where War Emblem will be during the early furlongs.  

Other top 3-year-old Medaglia d'Oro's been on the shelf recently, not a good sign for this race.  A layoff immediately prior to the Classic is a very negative sign.  With just one or two exceptions, the Classic is usually won won within 30 days of the winner's most recent previous race.  

At this point, barring any startling developments, my plan is to bet trifectas with Hawk Wing on top, and Formal Attire and more-or-less random longshots in the second and third places.  I may bet a few trifectas with Formal Attire on top, too.  But my choice is Hawk Wing.

I hope that's helpful to you, and wish you the best of luck on Saturday.

- Mark Shrager