Lead Change on Television

Question
QUESTION: How can I decipher lead changes from watching the race on television while handicapping?

ANSWER: Hi William:

Thanks for your question.  Changing leads is a natural thing to race horses and they do it without any training, but they are trained to change leads at the appropriate time during the race.  It's a difficult thing to see unless you know what to watch for.  Watch the horses leave the starting gate - most of them start with a right lead and you can see it in the initial gallop from the gate.  On a one turn race (7 furlongs or less#, they only have to change leads twice.  When they go into the first part of the turn they must change leads to the left since the turn is going to the left.  Then when coming out of the turn, they go back to their right lead.  The difficult part is getting the horse to change leads when the jockey wants him to change leads.  The jockey does nothing in the initial lead change to the left, however, when the turn is finished and the horse starts running in the straight stretch, the jockey will tap the horse on the shoulder to get him to change leads at the right time in the race.  The lead change is necessary because of tiring with the left lead - down the stretch when they ask the stalkers to begin their speed surge to the wire, the horse must change to the right lead or they can't get their speed up. Some trainers get the horses to change leads with a nudge of the jockey's knee to the shoulder and/or a tap to the shoulder with the hand or whip.  On a two turn race #routes of 1 mile and upward), they must change leads to the left twice - once for each turn.  Unfortunately, it is a difficult thing to see because the horse's legs are moving so quickly.

Hope this helps you William and thanks again for your question.

---------- FOLLOW-UP ----------

QUESTION: Hello Jim,

Thank you for the answer.  It gave me a better understanding in this topic.  As far as handicapping is concern, should that be a factor when you place a bet?  When I watch a 2 yr old race, a early season 3 yr old race or the maiden claiming race, the horses in those races in particular are either too green or unresponsive.  Is that something that can be ignore if you solely base on form handicapping as oppose to try to figure out what went wrong in the video to have that as a determinant to not bet on a particular horse in the next race that didn't change lead?  It is sort of like a catch 22 or a chicken first/egg first argument.  Thank you again for this.  

William

Answer
Hi again William:

Again, thanks for the question.  No, I don't think that lead change problems in younger horses should be taken into account when handicapping.  Of course, it also depends on what criteria you use to handicap - there are various methods of handicapping thoroughbreds, however, I have been more successful when using speed as the primary factor.  I have written a computer program that looks at about 30 different things that have to be considered, however, the speed splits are the primary factor.  I know that there are other types of handicapping that are very successful like studying trainers and jockeys, using trip data, etc., but it is my feeling that speed is primary.  I miss a lot of first time starters since I don't use them in my handicapping, but there again, the first time starters usually have some kind of trip problem for the first few times they run.  If a first time starter has an outside post, and indicates good form from the posted workouts, then I might consider putting them in my exotic wagers, but only like in 3rd or 4th positions.

Again, thanks for your question and I hope this helps you.

Jim