Water hazard and 27.1 or 27.2

Question
I have read your response to prior questions and there still reamains some confusion.

You state that 27.1 applies if you are not certain that the ball in in the water hazard so you should re-hit and take a penalty but 27.1 seems to be it is out of bounds, if you are clearly in the water can you not move forward and play it keeping on line with the hole and 27.2 seems to be for a provisional to be played.

My scenario is a drive off a tee heads for a distant water hazard from a differnet hole. I understand that I can hit a provisional but why? If I find my ball, no problem, if it was heading for the water and there is no where else it could go it that not "certain" at some point or would I have to re-hit from the tee?

Answer
Perhaps I didn't make myself clear; one of the options for the water hazard situation is to invoke the stroke and distance penalty.  You can do that under almost any situation you might encounter.  As far a playing a provisional, you can do that only if your ball is either likely to be lost outside of a water hazard, or out of bounds.  In your scenario with it being evident the ball could not be anywhere but the water hazard, you wouldn't be able to play a provisional because it is neither lost outside the hazard or out of bounds.  Under this scenario, if you were to play another ball from the tee and declare it a provisional, you would be hitting 3 from the tee and must abandon the original ball if found.  If there is any possibility at all that the ball did not end up in a hazard and it is not found, it is deemed to be lost and you must return to the tee where you'd be hitting 3.

I hope this is clearer,

John