Proper play?

Question
QUESTION: Hello,

This is a situation question. ASA. We are home team.

Away team has go-ahead run on third and a runner on 1st with one out. This is top of the 7th. What is the correct play in this situation? Should we load the bases?

ANSWER: Hi Eric,

Thank you for your question entitled Proper play?  There is no definitive answer as to what is the proper play in your scenario, in my opinion.  It depends on several factors!

Certainly one factor that needs to be considered is the strength of the next three batters, at least, in the away/visitor team's lineup.  If their next batter is a Slugger who has already terrorized your defense this game with a double, three triples, and a home run in just six innings, but the two girls due up after her couldn't put a bat on the ball if their lives depended on it, then it would be a no-brainer to intentionally walk the Slugger to get to the next two weak bats.  Conversely, it wouldn't make sense to intentionally walk a weak hitter who is a likely candidate to hit into an infield double play, to bring to the plate the Slugger, who is a likely candidate to burn you again with a long ball.

There are advantages to intentionally walking a batter and loading the bases with runners already on 1B and 3B.  One advantage is that it sets up your defense for every possible double play combination.  If your defense can turn two, then you're out of the inning!  Also, with the bases loaded, if your defense can manage to eke out just one throw on a ground ball, then all four bases are a force out opportunity, instead of just at 1B and 2B.  You hope that that one throw goes home to force out the runner who was on 3B!

There are disadvantages to intentionally walking a batter and loading the bases with runners already on 1B and 3B.  One disadvantage is that you'll be handing the offense, on a silver platter, an additional run opportunity.  A two-on homer brings in three runs, but a bases-loaded homer brings in four.  That additional run only makes it that much more difficult for you to come back in the bottom of the 7th.  I asked a coach friend of mine about your question and he pointed out to me that there are some coaches, interestingly, who will never intentionally walk a batter, period, let alone load the bases with just one out.  Some coaches just don't believe in intentional walks.  One of several reasons he cited for that is a coach doesn't want to undermine the confidence of his pitcher, who may construe being asked to intentionally walk a tough hitter as an inability to get out a tough hitter.

Scott Kelly

---------- FOLLOW-UP ----------

QUESTION: Hello Scott,

Thanks for taking the additional time to answer my question. This particular situation had me pondering for a while and ultimately came to a similar conclusion. I was maybe looking for more of a resolute strategy that would give the team a better percentage of winning. And I agree that there are other factors in play that needs to be considered.

In case you were wondering, we did intentionally walk the batter (batting 5th) to load the bases. The next batters had a sac fly and a ground out.
So down one heading into the bottom of the 7th, we ironically had the same situation just half inning ago. We had winning run on 3B, runner on 1B with one out. The other team decided not to load the bases. Next batter lines out to 2B and when trying to double up at 1B, threw the ball in the dirt, runner on 3B was able to score.

Once again, thank you for really giving my question a thorough thought. I would definitely come back and ask you more questions.

Answer
Hi Eric,

Thank you for your compliments, and you're welcome for my answer.  I wish I could have provided a more resolute strategy for your scenario, but I'm not really sure that anyone could have!  Both defensive and offensive strategies are so situational.

It's interesting, isn't it, that when you LOADED the bases for them, they scored a run, but when they DIDN'T LOAD the bases for you, you scored a run anyway!  So what conclusion can be drawn by comparing the two strategies with each other?  Both yielded the same result.

Yes, please do ask more questions!

Sincerely, Scott Kelly